Black Knight: Mortgage Monitor February 2022

  • Home prices rose 1.84% in February — nearly four times the 25-year average for the month — and the 14th month of the pandemic to see monthly growth above 1%, according to the Black Knight HPI.

  • The average home is now up more than 34% since February 2020, with appreciation continuing to accelerate after a brief slowdown last fall

  • Each of the 100 largest U.S. markets saw double-digit annual home price growth in February 2022, with three-quarters of those markets seeing a continued acceleration in appreciation

  • Home price growth is accelerating even as interest rates continue to climb, with rates rising nearly a third of a percent in February and more than 1.25% since the start of the year until the end of March

  • As a result, affordability is now at its lowest point on record outside of 2004-2007, with the monthly principal and interest (P&I) payment for buying a home at the average price up $329. $ (+24%) since the beginning of the year.

  • It now takes 29.1% of median household income to make this P&I payment, down from 19.3% just 15 months ago and 4 percentage points higher than the long-term average of 1995-2003.

  • 82 of the 100 largest US markets are now less affordable than their long-term benchmarks, down from six at the start of the pandemic

  • In recent years, a payment-to-income ratio above 21% has helped cool the housing market, but record high inventories continue to fuel growth even in the face of the tightest affordability in 15 years.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – April 4, 2022 – Today the Data analysis division of Dark Knight, Inc. (NYSE: BKI) released its latest Mortgage monitor report, based on the company’s state-of-the-art mortgage, real estate and public records datasets. This month’s report examines the continuation of record house price growth – even with interest rates soaring – and the growing pressures on affordability resulting from these competing dynamics. According to the President of Black Knight Data & Analytics, Ben Graboske, February 2022 saw the highest annual house price increases on record.

“House prices rose 1.84% in February – almost four times the 25-year average for the month – and they did so as interest rates continued to climb throughout the month. “, said Graboske. “The month’s 19.6% year-over-year growth marked the highest annual rate of appreciation on record, with the average home now up more than 34% since February 2020, just ahead of the After a brief fall cooling, appreciation has reaccelerated over the past four months, with three-quarters of the 100 largest U.S. markets – all of which recorded double-digit annual appreciation in February. to note – are witnessing a reacceleration in house prices And this, while interest rates climbed almost a third of a percent in February and are now up more than 1.25% since the beginning of the year.

“This combination of accelerating growth and sharply rising interest rates has resulted in the tightest affordability in 15 years. needed to make the average P&I payment – The price of a home purchased with 20% down payment is the highest share in 25 years At the beginning of the year, a potential buyer who could budget for a monthly P&I payment of $1,700 – about the amount needed to buy an average home today, excluding taxes and insurance – could afford a $497,000 house.With Freddie Mac stating the 30-year average rate was 4.42% the March 24, that same borrower can now afford less than $425,000 The average P&I payment has increased by 24%, or about $329 per month, while at the same time, the average buyer’s purchasing power fell by 15% In the recent past, a payment-to-revenue ratio above 21% has t cool the housing market and regulate prices, but historically low inventory levels continue to fuel significant t growth even in the face of the tightest affordability in 15 years.”

As the current inventory crisis is key to these unprecedented housing market conditions, this month’s Mortgage Monitor also examines what many thought could serve as a release valve for the current shortage – potentially hundreds of thousands of owners coming out of forbearance by listing their homes for sale as a resolution. The report finds that, of the 8.1 million homeowners who had been on forbearance at some point during the pandemic, there have been 2.3 million (28%) liquidations so far. Of these, 925,000 have fully repaid their loan through the sale of their homes. Although this averaged 40,000 such sales per month during the pandemic, this did not fill the inventory gap and has been trending downward in recent months. Fewer than 750,000 loans remain in active forbearance, and another 400,000 are no longer in forbearance but are still involved in active loss mitigation efforts. Recent post-forbearance liquidations have leaned more toward cash refinances as owners may be looking to reset financially.

About Mortgage Monitor

Black Knight’s Data & Analytics division manages the nation’s leading repository of loan-level residential mortgage data and performance information covering the majority of the global market, including tens of millions of loans across all of Black Knight’s products. credit and over 160 million historical records. . The combined view of home price and real estate data from Black Knight HPI and Collateral Analytics provides one of the most comprehensive, accurate and timely measures of home prices available, covering 95% of US residential properties up to at postcode level. Additionally, the company maintains one of the strongest databases of public property records available, covering 99.9% of the US population and households in over 3,100 counties.

Black Knight’s research experts carefully analyze this data to produce a summary supplemented by dozens of tables and graphs that reflect trends and point observations for the Monthly Mortgage Monitor Report. To view the full report, visit: https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/

About the Dark Knight

Black Knight, Inc. (NYSE: BKI) is an award-winning software, data and analytics company that drives innovation in the mortgage and real estate lending and servicing industries, as well as in capital markets and secondary. Businesses leverage our robust integrated solutions across the homeownership lifecycle to help retain existing customers, win new customers, mitigate risk and operate more efficiently.

Our customers rely on our proven, comprehensive, and scalable products and our unwavering commitment to providing superior customer support to achieve their strategic goals and better serve their customers. For more information on Black Knight, please visit www.blackknightinc.com/.

Edward N. Arrington